Analytics And Intelligent Systems

NUS ISS AIS Practice Group

Feasibility Analysis of Developing Singapore into Smart City — August 17, 2017

Feasibility Analysis of Developing Singapore into Smart City

Motivation

Advances in digital technology have opened up new possibilities to enhance the way we live, work, play, and interact. And “Smart City” is not a measure of how advanced or complex the technology being adopted is, but how well a society uses technology to solve its problems and address existential challenges. Singapore strives to become a Smart City to support better living, stronger communities, and create more opportunities, for all.

Smartness penetrates in everyday life of each citizen, it is significantly impacting the  transformation of the conventional way of living. Building a smart city includes providing:

  • efficient, safe, reliable, and enhanced transportation
  • integrated and seamless healthcare
  • sustainable and livable residence environment
  • close and intimate public sector services

The analysis is conduct based on  the foundation construction of the above aims, involving nation wide Internet coverage, citizen acceptability, manpower and financial funding input, etc., to discuss whether it is the right time for transformation in Singapore.

Target Audience

Minister Lawrence Wong, Ministry of National Development

GQM Methodology

Goal — Analyze current status of infrastructure construction to suggest building Singapore into the first Smart City around the globe.

Questions:

  • Is the network coverage broad enough?
  • What is the R&D (research & development) expenditure currently?
  • Do citizens get used to digital life?
  • What is the current status of domestic enterprises (acceptability)?
  • Is the IT manpower sufficient enough to support smart city development?

Metrics

  • Wi-Fi hotspot density
  • web presence percentage of domestic enterprises
  • mobile penetration
  • online-shoppers distribution
  • resource requirement from IT industry

 

Date Modeling

datamodeling

 

Dashboard Design

dashboard

Insight Discovery

Successful transformation of living habits for citizen

Citizens are trying to adapt to the “smartness” of living environment. Data of “Online shopper by age” reveals active online users distribution among different age range.

  • Age between 25 and 34 is the major consumer group in online shopping, 75% of them prefer shop online.
  • Age group from 15 to 24 has a sharp increase from year 2007 to 2014, 55% of them use online shopping for daily needs.

Fully network coverage enables smart solutions launching

Singapore has high density of Wi-Fi hotspot coverage (excluding industrial areas of westernmost and Changi airport), which stimulates the facilitation and implementation of smart solution towards almost every aspect. Citizens will be able to keep themselves connected to the entire smart ecosystem via Wi-fi or 4G network. For instance smart living solutions aims at providing seamlessly and remotely managing connected homes from anywhere, at anytime, on any screen in real time.

The intensive coverage of network nation wide is solid foundation of launching smart solutions, enables society to be fully connected.

Stably increased financial investment towards R&D provides strong support in innovation and development.

Financial investment to R&D is continuous increasing, it has an obvious rising trend from 1990 to 2014 in both private and public sectors:
Private — comprises all business enterprises in the private sector.
Public — comprises all entities in the Government Sector, Higher Education Sector and Public Research Institutes

Government tends to sustain the R&D in innovation driving, smart solution research, technology development, etc., to guarantee a stable research environment for designing, building and implementing smart city.

 

Team members

Cui Leyang    (A0163218J)

Duan Han     (A0163238E)

Gao Yuxi       (A0163364E)

Li Yue            (A0163373E)

Que Qiwen   (A0163391E) 

 

Drug Abuse in Singapore — August 14, 2017

Drug Abuse in Singapore

PROBLEM STATEMENT

  • Drug abuse is defined as the persistent misuse of an illicit substance even when the results of such behaviours bring forth negative consequences, such as legal ramifications, illness or family problems.
  • Drug abuse constitutes a major socio-medical problem throughout the world. With the advent of  digital age and the spread of the Internet and digital technologies online and mobile, the challenge of keeping Singapore drug-free is increasing. It has become easier to acquire drugs, and be misinformed on drugs.
  • The illicit drug manufacturing generally follows the natural path of supply and demand, and as the number of users continues to increase, so do Asian-based production setups.
  • Minister for Home Affairs K Shanmugam Mr Shanmugam called for the anti-drug fight to be made a “national priority”.

TARGET AUDIENCE

Minister of Law and Home affairs

GOAL (GQM)

In this assignment we aim to:

  • Provide an overview of ‘drug abuse’ situation in Singapore.
  • Investigate the key factors that lead to the increased number of drug abusers in Singapore.
  • Help the Minister of Home Affairs focus their strategies on key areas, by providing an unbiased review of the effectiveness of various campaigns against drug abuse.

QUESTIONS (GQM)

What has been the trend of drug abuse in Singapore over the recent past?

What is the most commonly used drug in Singapore?

What do the trends suggest and what are the factors that contributing to the drug abuse trend in Singapore?

How does Singapore’s drug control situation compare to other countries in the region? (KPI: 5-year growth rate trend with other countries in %)

Are the current measures taken by the government in the ‘fight against drug’ improving the situation? What is currently the most effective strategy?

 METRICS (KPIs)

What has been the trend of drug abuse in Singapore over the recent past?

  • YoY % change in number of drug abusers in different categories (age, education, new, repeat users)
  • 5-year average growth rate in %

What is the most commonly used drug in Singapore?

  • % change in the use of drug, year on year (for each different drug type)
  • 5-year average growth rate in usage, in %

How does Singapore’s drug control situation compare to other countries in the region?

  • 5-year growth rate trend of each country, in %

Are the current measures taken by the government in the ‘fight against drug’ improving the situation? What is currently the most effective strategy?

  • Performance Ratio of campaign = no. of rehab/(total no. of new + repeat cases)
    Higher ratio indicates better performance
    (refer to Anti-Drug Campaign Performance Chart, first 5 years versus recent 5 years)

METHODOLOGY

  • Based on our goal we collected relevant datasets from data.gov.sg and defined KPIs that will help us understand the drug situation in Singapore as well as measure the current campaign’s effectiveness.
  • The team performed  data sourcing from https://data.gov.sg/ with the searched keyword drugs, after filtering and sorting. The team finally decided to select following datasets to build the dashboard

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Data from: https://data.gov.sg/search?groups=society&q=drug

DATA MODELLING

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  • The data collected from the various sources was preprocessed and for  the sake of timeliness only the data for the past ten years has been considered.
  • All the numeric fields which were appearing as text fields were converted to float type for enabling visualization in power BI.
  • The data normalisation criteria 1NF was already satisfied since there were no multi-valued attributes or any repeating groups. Additionally since there were no composite keys in the data tables the 2NF criterion is also satisfied. Finally, since there is no non-key attribute dependent on any other non-key attribute, so the 3NF is also satisfied.

DASHBOARDname f

INSIGHTS

What has been the trend of drug abuse in Singapore over the recent past?

From  the dashboard we can observe that number of drug abusers have been rising over the past years at a worrying rate, with highest figure in the decade recorded in 2013. Age group 21-30 has shown the highest increase in drug abuse, increasing by 400% from 2006-2016.

Profile of drug abusers is changing – New wave of younger, better-educated addicts. Drug abuse can also come from well-educated people, as seen in the slight increase in abusers from the tertiary group.

The consequences of this trend among youths should not be taken lightly – if we are not careful, they can become our next generation of abusers.

What is the most commonly used drug in Singapore?

From the dashboard, We can observe that the abuse of ice has increased on a year on year growth rate of 12.3%(2011 to 2016), from 2006 to 2016.

What do the trends suggest and what are the factors that contributing to the drug abuse trend in Singapore?

Age and education level of the population groups are major contributors towards the number of drug abusers in Singapore, we can see a slight increase in drug abusers among highly educated group (tertiary and above). A new wave of better educated population in drug abuse cases indicate that low education level alone may not be sufficient to explain the increase in drug abuse.

This highlight new trends in our fight against drug abuse – such as the changing attitude and perception of our youths towards drugs.
The broader issue at large might be misinformation about drugs online, leading young people to think the drugs are not harmful.

How does Singapore’s drug control situation compare to other countries in the region? (KPI: 5-year growth rate trend with other countries in %)

The 2016 World Drug Report by the United Nations Office on Drugs & Crime (UNODC) reported that methamphetamine (ice) seizures in East and Southeast Asia almost quadrupled between 2009 and 2014. South-east Asia continues to be a major market and producer of illicit drugs and Singapore is  a major transport hub, and vulnerable to drug syndicates in the region. Comparing with other countries in the region, we can see that the 5-year growth rate Singapore remains relatively green on the heat map indicating a low 5-year growth rate. Singapore currently has a 5-year average growth rate of 9.2% while in SE Asia countries like Laos and Myanmar the 5-year growth rate is 17.8% and 11.2% respectively.

Are the current measures taken by the government in the ‘fight against drug’ improving the situation? What is currently the most effective strategy?

We can see that for the first 5-year from 2006 to 2012, the ratio is low, since the sum of new and repeat cases are large relative to the number of rehabs. From 2012 to 2016, the performance ratio is raised, since the number of rehab increased while the sum of new and repeat cases dipped. Hence indicating that the current rehab measure is to some extent successful in controlling the drug situation over the years.

However, the total no. of drug users is still increasing, from 1.7k to 4.6k over a ten-year period from 2006 to 2016.

All these suggests that although rehabs and arrests are important part in Singapore’s comprehensive anti-drug regime, they are merely part of the overall approach which will not work on its own.

Other lines of defense like cyber tracking and enhanced online tracking facilities would be needed to cope with new challenges such as the increased supply of drugs in the region and online.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Anti-Drug Abuse Campaign this year with a renewed focus on involving youths in the fight against drugs, as well as enhance its social media efforts.

Singapore will have to increase its partnerships with overseas counterparts and tackle the new “online supply menace”. There is also a strong requirement for volunteers, more individuals to raise up their hands and shoulder the responsibility in the fight against drugs.

Preventive education, which includes school talks and lesson plans.

ANAND RAJAN (A0163200B)
KANGLONG LIU (A0163217F)
ZHONGYAO CHENG (A0163423M)
NG WEIPING (A0056380H)

A Survey on Singaporean Traffic and Roadwork Data — August 7, 2017

A Survey on Singaporean Traffic and Roadwork Data

Introduction:

When you’re driving around in the Business Hub of the world, you would obviously expect things to be a bit on the congested side. As of the Tom Tom world traffic index in 2016, it has been observed that singapore has witnessed a rise in congestion levels due to traffic. This comes as no good news, as the existing traffic condition in the country adds about 34 minutes of extra travel time on an average. Combine that with the pre-existing traffic situation in Singapore and you’re staring at a big logistical problem.

However, many efforts are being taken on the travel optimization front in the city. The introduction of the Electronic Road Pricing or ERP systems that reduced the time wasted on manual parking fee collections. Further efforts to reduce traffic congestion and improve quality of transport across the country need sufficient backing by meaningful data and statistics. This is the inspiration behind surveying the country’s traffic and incident data.

Data Acquisition and Pre-Processing:

Data for the survey was pulled from Data.gov.sg as well as the Land Transport Authority Data Mall. We extracted the following fields from the available APIs for the use of our survey models.

Label Description
Incident Type Road incident type. Example: Roadwork, Accident, Vehicle Breakdown.
Geographical Location Geographical data consisting of Latitude and Longitude.
Road Name Name of the road where the incident has occurred
Time Time details about the incident, consisting of start and end time of the same.
Temperature Average Temperature recorded in singapore for the corresponding time stamp.
Pressure Pressure recorded in Singapore for the corresponding timestamp.
Humidity Average Humidity recorded in Singapore for the corresponding timestamp.

Data Sources: https://data.gov.sg/dataset/public-transport-utilisation-average-public-transport-ridership ; https://www.mytransport.sg/content/mytransport/home/dataMall.html ; www.nea.gov.sg

GQM Analysis:

Goal:

The broad goals of this analysis is to devise methods that will aid in a reduction of congestion due to traffic while simultaneously reducing the effect of roadway incidents on the traffic.

Questions:

To provide solutions that help us achieve our goals, we have to answer some basic questions first. Here are the main questions whose answers we feel are imperative in order to achieve solutions leading to our goals. We have grouped them into the 4 main types of questions we need.

  • Where?

Where is traffic concentrated across the city?

To understand how we must tackle the problem of overcrowding the roads, we must first understand what the most affected areas are.

  • When?

When is the Traffic at its peak?

To develop a sustainable planning model, we will also require the times at which traffic it at its peak. For example, if one were to schedule a roadwork activity, they would have to make sure it doesn’t clash with peak traffic timings so as to minimize its effect on the congestion.

When do majority of incidents occur?

By understanding the distribution of incidents across times, we would be able to estimate and predict the likelihood of its occurrence and correspondingly take action.

  • How?

How is the distribution of major roadwork incidents across the country?

To allocate resources for different tasks, we must know the different kinds of incidents occurring across the country, along with their individual frequencies of the same.

  • What?

What are some factors that affect traffic conditions?

Do factors such as weather influence the traffic incidents in Singapore? If so, is it possible to predict the likelihood of certain incidents based on weather? And if there weather affects the traffic conditions by a lot, we could focus planning activities on mitigating the effects of the same.

Metrics:

  1. Geospatial Traffic Data- Incident Flag, Latitude, Longitude.
  2. Time Data- Start Time, End Time, Total Time.
  3. Weather Data- Temperature, Humidity, Pressure.
  4. Incident Frequency Rate.

Data Dashboard:

     Click on the picture to view the Public Tableau Dashboard

 

Insights and Conclusions:

  • We observe that most incidents take place during the day and that there are very few recorded cases of traffic related incidents during the night.
  • Roadwork incidents seem to take the longest amount of time, and hence must be planned carefully so as to not disrupt normal traffic.
  • The effect of Temperature, Humidity and Pressure upon Singapore traffic is minimal, and that traffic is weather-independent.
  • A majority of the traffic related incidents seem to occur around the Central Business District in Singapore, thus indicating where most resources must be pumped.
  • A more in-depth analysis can be done over a longer period of time and can yield better insights

 

Team of 
Naitik Shukla (A0163426H)
Navneet Goswami (A0163221W)
Shobhit Jaipurkar (A0163331R)
Vignesh Srinivasan (A0163246H)
Baby Bonus Dashboard – Building a Nation. Creating a Family. —

Baby Bonus Dashboard – Building a Nation. Creating a Family.

Banner

Disclaimer

The information provided in this blog post is meant for student project/student research purposes. Content accuracy is based on and limited by the team’s understanding. Raw data accuracy is valid as of 6th Aug 2017.

The blog post may include links to external internet sites. These external information sources are outside the control of the team. The user of the external links is responsible for making his or her own decisions about the accuracy, reliability and correctness of information found.

In no event shall the team be liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising from any use or reliance of information presented in this student project.

Student Team (Part-Time KE MTech): 

Tan Yoke Kum (E0146982), Koh Tian An (E0146432), Ng Shan Jun (E0146756), Isaac Varun Kumar (E0146794), Ho Wei Jing (E0146951).

Introduction – What is the Baby Bonus Scheme?

The Baby Bonus Scheme was first introduced by then Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong during the National Day Rally held on 20 August 2000. Also known as the Child Development Co-savings Scheme, it is an initiative targeted at boosting fertility rates by encouraging married couples to have more babies. [1]

The aim of Child Development Co-Savings (Baby Bonus) Scheme is to help lighten the financial costs of raising children. [2]

Project Contextualization – What are the Critical Elements of the Baby Bonus Scheme?

Creating a dashboard requires knowledge of the theme/domain – and the questions that that needs to be answered for that domain.

The team asked ourselves:

  • What is the Baby Bonus Scheme actually helping with?
  • What is the Baby Bonus Scheme’s objectives?
  • Why will someone need to monitor the Baby Bonus Scheme?
  • What will the user of the dashboard needs to look out for?

The team researched on the subject and based on our limited comprehension of the subject, formed the following understanding:

Singapore’s Baby Bonus Scheme

Supports couples in their decision to have more children. [2]

  • The Child Development Co-Savings (Baby Bonus) Scheme helps to lighten the financial costs of raising children.
  • The scheme is part of the Marriage and Parenthood Package and includes a cash gift and contributions to the Child Development Account. [2]

The success of the Baby Bonus scheme is debatable [3], but revisions over the years have produced an enhanced financial incentive scheme that is more beneficial to prospective parents considering the current income growth and cost of living.

Using this understanding, the team then formulate the organisational goals which will become the philosophy of the dashboard, with five key questions that help identify the data needed, the core layout and the chart types of the dashboard design.

Organisational Goals

Ensure the effectiveness and relevancy of the Baby Bonus Scheme in reducing the financial burden placed on parents having to raise a child.

Provide an overview the areas of interests that will:

  • Address the questions raised
  • Allows the viewer to make an executive assessment on the impact of the Baby Bonus Scheme
  • Decide on the level of improvement required for the Scheme

The Five Questions that Drives the Data Collection and Dashboard Design

  1. What is Singapore’s fertility trend?
  2. What is Singapore’s birth order trend?
  3. Which ethnic group responds positively to the Baby Bonus Scheme?
  4. What is the progression of living costs (of a child) over the years since the introduction of the Baby Bonus scheme?
  5. How effective is the Baby Bonus Scheme in lessening the financial burden of raising a child?

Data Collection – What is the Data We Need? Where Do We Get It?

The team has handpicked several market costs indicators to assist in calculating “sample” living costs for raising a child.

The compiled costing data is not meant for a one size fits all scenario, and is meant for a general overview of the trend in costs of raising a child over the years.

Some of the monetary data are not readily available, or found in a single source among the government’s open source data sets. As such the team has conducted investigative data gathering, extracting information from newspaper articles, internet archives (Wayback Machine) and other internet sites e.g., forums and websites.

Cornerstone data such as the Baby Bonus Scheme cash payouts, Singapore’s birth rates and fertility trends can be found on government websites, though sometimes forums, newspapers and others need to be sourced (e.g., for past Baby Bonus Scheme cash payouts)

Sampling are made as representation of certain data sets (not to be taken as indicators for the whole) e.g.,:

  • Maid Costs are represented by the measures for Filipino Maids (assumptions are made that costs are constant over the years till the next price adjustment.)
  • Hospital Maternity Costs is represented by pricing from Thomson Medical (using the single room cost)
Data Cluster Contains Source
Birth Rate
  • Year of Recorded Birth Rates
  • Total Annual Births
  • Total Malay Births
  • Total Chinese Births
  • Total Indian Births
  • Total Other Ethnic Births
Income
  • Year of Recorded Median Household Income
  • Median Household Income Per Member
Baby Bonus
  • Year of Recorded Baby Bonus
  • Baby Bonus CDA
Fertility Rates
  • Year of Recorded Fertility Rates
  • Total Fertility Rate
  • Net Reproduction Rate
Housing
  • Year of Recorded Housing Resale Price
  • Month of Recorded Housing Resale Price
  • Resale Price (Mean)
  • Resale Price (Median)
  • No. of Flats
Birth Count By Order Year of Recorded Birth Count

  • First Child
  • Second Child
  • Third Child
  • Fourth Child
  • Fifth Child
  • Sixth and Above
Monetary Matters
  • Year of Recorded Costs
  • Maid Cost By Month
  • Infant Milk Powder Cost (by 900 Gram Tin)
  • Tins of Milk Per Month
  • Infant Care Services By Month
  • Child Care Services By Month
  • Thompson Medical Delivery (One Time Fee)
  • Childcare Subsidies By Month
  • Infant Care Subsidies By Month
  • Baby Bonus Cash Per Year
  • Total Costs Per Year [Using Cost of Maid (x12) + Cost of Milk Powder (x12) + Cost of Infant Care/Cost of Child Care (x12)]

Wayback Machine. KK Women’s And Children’s Hospital Web Archives. Retrieved on 6th Aug 2017 from

Data Cleaning and Our Dashboard KPI Metric

Certain data such as the KPI – Metric for Baby Bonus are calculated once the data are gathered and the team began to prepare and clean them.

Cost of Living/Expenditures of raising a child are calculated based on certain indicators of the “monetary matters” raw data.

Data that presents their values in months are represented into annual data by using their original monthly data x 12.

Calculating change among certain data are based on:

Metric_Team4_BabyBonus.jpg

KPI Metric is shown as below:

KPI Ensure the effectiveness and relevancy of the Baby Bonus Scheme in reducing the financial burden placed on parents having to raise a child.
Metric Main elements used:

  • Total Cost of Living – Per Annum (Based on sample indicators tied to raising a child for the first six years)
  • Cost of a maid
  • Cost of milk powder
  • Cost of infant care/child care
  • Baby Bonus Cash Payment – Per Annum (Based on total payout divided by six years)

Data Modelling

DataModel_Team4.jpg

Baby Bonus Dashboard Design

Team4_BabyBonusDashboardDesign.jpg

Team4_BabyBonusDashBoardLayout

To understand if the dashboard will be able to fulfill the team’s identified organisational goals and key questions, the team took a walk in the shoes of the identified user of the dashboard.

Reading the Dashboard – Chart 1 Fertility Rate

Team4_BabyBonusDashboardDesign_Chart1.jpg

The birth rate has seen a steady downwards trend over the decade. The decline has been arrested in recent years, although it is still dipping down slightly.

Current birth rate is less than 1.4 per household. This is well below the 2.1 target rate.

The dashboard user is perceived as being the “Manager” for the Baby Bonus Scheme, as such, the fertility rate is the leading cause of why the Baby Bonus Scheme is needed.

Key Note: The Baby Bonus Scheme is but one of the supportive measures to assist in arresting the fertility rate decline and support a KPI target of 2.1 for total fertility rate. Its principle direction is to lessen financial burden of raising a child, and as such, it does not directly improve the fertility rate significantly. It is however a key influencer in maintaining the status quo (as will be shown below).

Reading the Dashboard – Chart 2 Birth Rate By Order

Team4_BabyBonusDashboardDesign_Chart2.jpg

Due to the way the Baby Bonus cash pay outs are staggered and differentiated based on the order of the child, the birth rate by order is an important trend for the “Manager” of the Baby Bonus to monitor.

It is observed that the scheme did encourage first time parents especially after the revision in 2004 to include the first baby. Parents with a child are also more likely to have a second child, with the numbers peaking or maintaining throughout the period of Baby Bonus Scheme adjustment intervals.

Key Observation: In truth the trend shows that the Baby Bonus Scheme helps in maintaining the number of prospective parents having first and second child.

The downward trends and flatlines are the third, fourth, fifth and sixth child. This presents a pattern that parents are more cautious of having more than two children in this day and age, even if Baby Bonus cash pay outs are enhanced.

It can be implied that the Baby Bonus Scheme has no impact on citizens’ decisions in having a third child and more.

Key Note: From dashboard observation, the “Manager” will be able to identify his key target audience as the parents having first and second child. To improve the conception of third child onwards, the government might have to consider supportive measures or monetary incentives in other areas.

Reading the Dashboard – Chart 3 Birth By Ethnicity

Team4_BabyBonusDashboardDesign_Chart3.jpg

Race plays a part in fertility rate. Since fertility rate is measured by the number of child per woman (of child bearing age range), the birth rate is important.

As shown, while the Chinese are the ones setting trends of Singapore’s birth rates by annum due to their large population size, the Malays “seem” to be the group responding well to the Baby Bonus Scheme in recent years. They are the only ethnic group to have seen an upward climb in births in recent years.

Key Note: The “Manager” of the Dashboard will be able to pick up on the trend and explore in deeper detail of “WHY?” Malays “seem” more receptive to the scheme, and to explore factors of influence for other ethnic groups.

Reading the Dashboard – Chart 4 Expenditure Incurred

Team4_BabyBonusDashboardDesign_Chart4.jpg

Key contributors identified are:

  • Maid Cost
  • Infant Milk
  • Infant Care
  • Child Care
  • Delivery (Thomson Medical)

In order to reduce financial burden for prospective parents, the expenses spent on raising a child is a key decision factor in whether the existing Baby Bonus Scheme should be revamped.

As most market item costs (pertaining specifically to infants and children) are not publicly/officially available on government data sources, a significant amount of work was put to identify “key contributors” to represent the trend of expenditure needed to raise a child over the years.

As can be seen, the total costs have been raising steadily over the years, establishing the need for the Baby Bonus Scheme to act as a counterbalance to sustain the parents and their children’s quality of life.

Reading the Dashboard – Chart 5 Expenditure vs Baby Bonus

Team4_BabyBonusDashboardDesign_Chart5.jpg

Although this is in essence a general overview of total expenditure of the previous graph, the objective of this graph is to present a comparison of the rate of expenditure growth against the Baby Bonus Scheme’s pay outs (using data from the 1st/2nd child pay out as they are of same tier and make up more than 80% of newborns annually.)

The “Manager” of the Baby Bonus dashboard will be able to look at this quick overview to identify if the expenditure of raising a child is increasing faster than the Baby Bonus cash incentives. This preempts him to begin looking deeper into the raising costs, and what other measures he can take to prepare for eventual Baby Bonus Scheme revamps.

As supported by the trend of the data over the years, the Baby Bonus cash incentives have been raising in a proportionate measure close to the trend of the expenditure of raising a child.

Reading the Dashboard – Making a Decision at the Conclusion

With the readings, the “Manager” will then be able to forecast/estimation and begin formulating next course of actions/future plans.

Using what the data has shown thus far as a guide, the “Manager” could decide that based on the data trends, the estimated expenditure of raising a child will continue to raise, which indicates that the Baby Bonus Scheme will need to raise with it.

To ensure data integrity and accuracy of trend prediction, a wider net will need to be cast by the authorities to identify and store market costing data for other necessary essentials (items/services) for raising a child (e.g., baby clothes, diapers, vaccination costs).

Extra Notes – Other Factors Affecting KPI

A KPI such as the fertility rate is also indirectly influenced by other factors. Some of these factors that could affect the KPI and fall outside the scope of the Baby Bonus Scheme (for this project) are identified, so as to illustrate the team’s decision of why data relating to these elements were ultimately not utilized in the dashboard.

Household Income was originally identified, and then discarded as a key influencer of the Baby Bonus Scheme (in this context of the project) as the team’s available data on income is based off per household.

  • If a couple live with their parents or siblings, it doesn’t mean the combined household is supporting the child expenditure.
  • Each households have other expenses tied to it. E.g., daily essentials, elderly care, education.

Racial Culture

  • As shown from the dip in birth rate in year 2010 (Year of the Tiger) culture played a part as it is a belief among Asian Chinese that children born in the year of the Tiger are more difficult to manage, resulting in lower births in Tiger years. This is more prominent in Singapore and Taiwanese Chinese. [4]

Environmental and Health Factors

  • Hazardous levels of haze
  • Zika virus

Generation Cycles

  • A baby boom during previous generation could lead to another baby boom/fertility peak 20-30 years down the timeline as the children of prior baby boomer generation reach child bearing age.

After Action Review

During the course of the project, the team experienced stumbling blocks as it was discovered that publicly available data do not cover certain key indicators as needed for the analysis. While the unavailable data could be discovered on the internet, certain data pertaining to costs of items or services over the years are lost as the websites updated.

The team have to explore creative ways to access, interpret and make assumptions of data where necessary via internet archives (which does not managed to store everything, especially pages that are dynamic), online newspapers articles, libraries, blogs and forums.

The team realised the value of starting a systematic and properly modelled storage of data over the years throughout the process. It is difficult for analytic work if the sources are all over the place, and authenticity of the analysis can be called into doubt if data is not from validated sources.

This project has been an interesting and fun experience, the team’s data findings provided useful insights that altered our preconceived perceptions of the subject.

References

  1. Baby Bonus. (2000, August 28). The Straits Times, p. 8. Retrieved from NewspaperSG.
  2. Baby Bonus Scheme. Ministry of Social and Family Development. Retrieved from https://www.msf.gov.sg/policies/Strong-and-Stable-Families/Supporting-Families/Pages/Baby-Bonus-Scheme.aspx
  3. Baby Bonus Has Had Little Impact So Far. The Straits Times. pA1 & A6. 15 August 2009. Retrieved on 2 Aug 2017 from http://newshub.nus.edu.sg/news/0908/PDF/BABY-st-15Aug-pA1&A6.pdf
  4. Here’s how the Chinese Zodiac affects national birth rates. Business Insider. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-how-the-chinese-zodiac-affects-national-birth-rates-2016-12/?IR=T

Creative Commons

  1. Pixabay. “Baby Girl Sleeping”. TawnyNina. Retrieved on 7th Aug 2017 from https://pixabay.com/en/baby-baby-girl-sleeping-baby-784607/
Singapore Car Ownership and Public Transportation Analysis — August 6, 2017

Singapore Car Ownership and Public Transportation Analysis

Background:

With its small land mass and high population density, Singapore has always been wary about the issue of congestion. Pollution and environmental sustainability are also hotly debated topics that are relevant when discussing the issue of private car ownership and public transportation ridership.

In an attempt to control a growing vehicle population, the Certificate of Entitlement (COE) system was introduced in 1990. The government determines the quota of COEs to release and then allows the market to price it. Vehicle owners have to bid for a COE that would enable them to own and use the vehicle for 10 years. Bidding is conducted twice a month, through an open online auction system.

COEs have made Singapore one of the costliest countries to buy a car, thus discouraging many people from choosing to own a car. On the other hand, continuous efforts have been made to make public transport affordable and convenient. Investments have been made at maintaining and improving the infrastructure, the number of trains and buses have been increased, as well as the routes covered.

Goal and Target Audience

The target audience for this dashboard is the Ministry of Transport and Land Transport Authority. The goal is to analyse the impact of various government initiatives on controlling congestion through measures such as restricting car ownership and improving public transportation such that it is a viable and often, preferred alternative.

Questions

  1. How have population size and GDP per capita changed over the last 5 years?
  2. Have people been buying more cars on average?
  3. Are people choosing to take public transport more frequently?
  4. Is there a correlation between GDP and car ownership?
  5. How effective has the COE mechanism been in controlling car ownership?

Key Metrics

  • Ratio of people to cars
  • Average daily public transport ridership

Dashboard:

Dashboard

Findings

  1. How have population size and GDP per capita changed over the last 5 years?

Picture1

The annual population of Singapore has increased 7.69% from 2011 to 2016.

Picture2

The annual GDP per capita has increased 8.96% from 2011 to 2016.

2. Have people been buying more cars on average?

Picture3

After a surge from 2011 to 2012 where the ratio of people to cars decreased from 11.63 to 8.60 (meaning that people bought more cars), there has been a steady increase in the ratio, suggesting that people have indeed been buying more cars on average in the last 4 years.

3. Are people choosing to take public transport more frequently?

Picture4

Usage of buses and MRTs has increased by about 30% and 50% respectively over the observed 5-year period, faster than population growth of 7.69%. This increased popularity of public transport indicates that this is a preferred mode of travelling as opposed to personal cars. This suggests that the addition of more buses and trains with more lines and routes serviced has had the desired effect of encouraging people to use public transportation over private cars.

4. Is there a correlation between GDP and car ownership?

As cars are seen as luxury goods, one would expect a positive correlation between GDP and car ownership in Singapore.

From the above macroeconomic trends of a larger, wealthier population, one would expect the ratio of people to cars to decrease. However, since the significant decline from 2011 to 2012, the ratio has been increasing. This suggests that despite people in Singapore becoming wealthier, they are choosing not to buy cars.

There could be push and pull factors to account for this. On one hand, the prices of cars (heavily influenced by COE prices) could have increased more than this increase in wealth as measured by GDP per capita. On the flip side, public transportation could have been improved to the point where it is now the preferred mode of transport, appealing more to people in Singapore than owning a private car.

5. How effective has the COE mechanism been in controlling car ownership?

Picture5

This graph shows the quota of COEs released remained rather constant from 2011 to 2014. Category A refers to cars below 1600c while Category B refers to cars above 1600cc. Both categories follow a similar trend however there was a widening gap with more lower cc cars being allowed since 2015 as compared to higher cc cars.

Picture6

Expectedly, the price of a Category B COE is usually higher than that for Category A. However, prices for both Category A and Category B peaked in early 2013 and have been on a similarly gradual decline since. This is in tandem with the increase in the quota number as the price and quota are negatively correlated.

Conclusion

The efforts in curtailing car ownership, and by extension, congestion and pollution have been somewhat effective, with the ratio of people to cars going up despite an increasing GDP per capita. This suggests that the COE mechanism used to adjust the cost of car ownership has been effective.

Coupled with the increase in average daily public transport ridership, it appears that people in Singapore are finding public transport a more popular and viable means to travel, perhaps due to its convenience and low cost.

References

 

Team Members (Team 8)

Nway Nway Aung (A0163233N)

Soong Li Ching (A0163442L)

Luo Yuan (A0163417H)

Lynette Seow Hui Xin (A0163452J)

 

 

 

Performance Management Dashboard for the Early Childhood Development Agency —

Performance Management Dashboard for the Early Childhood Development Agency

Analysis of Demand for Regional Child Care Centers

The emergence of new Built-To-Order Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats often drives demographic changes within each town – new towns are characterized by a strong presence of young adults while older towns tend to face issues surrounding ageing population. As such, there is a need for interested government bodies, such as the Early Childhood Development Agency (ECDA), to understand the population structure as well as the quality and sufficiency of child care facilities within each town in order to better allocate manpower and logistic resources to meet the evolving needs and promote pro-family services that may in turn alleviate the nation’s falling birth rate.

Performance Management Dashboard for the Early Childhood Development Agency

The Early Childhood Development Agency (ECDA) is the regulatory and developmental authority for early childhood services in Singapore. Its mission is “to ensure every child has access to affordable and quality early childhood development services and programmes.” Putting ourselves in the shoes of ECDA’s planning division director, we envisage this role to be responsible for charting various organisational strategies to achieve the goals of accessibility, affordability and quality so as to fulfill the agency’s mission. To assist the director in assessing whether the organisation is on track to achieve the goals set out for the fiscal year, we developed a performance management dashboard highlighting several useful key performance indices (KPIs).

Business Goal:

To create for the planning division director of ECDA a dynamic dashboard for tracking KPIs and answering the following business questions:

Accessibility and Sufficiency of Childcare Facilities: Enrolment Rate

1. Is the average child care centre enrolment rate in each town optimal? Are there areas where new centres are required?

Measurable KPI: Difference between the desired level of enrolment rate and the observed enrollment rate in the last four quarters.

Both under-enrolment and over-capacity are suboptimal. Optimal enrolment is required to ensure that centres are able to reap economies of scale and cover operating costs, without compromising the accessibility and sufficiency of childcare facilities.

Findings: Towns such as Bukit Timah, Bukit Batok, Choa Chu Kang, Tampines, Kallang, Sengkang and Punggol are currently in the Red Zone. While some of the districts such as Bukit Batok, Bukit Timah and Kallang have under-enrolment issues, the rest of the towns are at risk of having under-capacity issues (e.g newer towns such as Punggol, Sengkang, Choa Chu Kang, as well as Tampines).

Among the under-capacity towns, the newer estates have more future demand for child care centres compared to the older towns. This is suggested by the difference between the current number of dwelling units and the projected ultimate. For instance, Punggol is estimated to expect a doubling of housing units in the next few years. In such areas where an influx of population and a potential hike in absolute number of children born are expected, ECDA should aggressively increase the number of child care centres in order to meet the growing demand for such services in years to come.

On the other hand, older towns such as Bukit Timah has almost reached it’s maximum housing and population capacity, with less than 8% of dwelling units to be expected in the future. Furthermore, it also has under-enrolment issues. Given this backdrop, the growth of child care centres in these estates needs to be moderated. While it is not possible to force childcare centres to close, it is perhaps ideal to let market forces take over.

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2. Will the current plan of building child care facilities in areas of risk succeed in reducing the number of towns whose enrolment rate falls outside the optimal zone?

Measurable KPI: The number of towns that has an enrolment rate falling outside the optimal zone.

To address this question, we project the absolute enrolment figures into 2017 Q3 and Q4, and considering the additional capacity that would be added due to new centres being built in these two quarters, we derive the projected enrolment rate. By comparing the projected enrolment rate and the target overall FY17 level, we will be able to assess if the planning division is on track to meet the KPI. For this KPI, the target is not strictly 0. Since it takes a long-term view to see improvements in optimal enrolment rates, a more attainable and time-bound target would be to aim for at least an incremental improvement.

Findings: While the appropriate intervention strategies in the younger town could move places such as Sengkang and Punggol out of the red zone, there will be towns such as Marine Parade joining the list. Yet, for the case of Marine Parade, as the remaining housing unit capacity of 8% suggests that there may not be much room for new HDB estates to be built, growth in these estate needs to be moderated.

MP

Affordability: Fees and Charges

3. Will an average family in Singapore be able to afford child care services?

Measurable KPI: The overall median monthly fees for full-day child care services

It is important to assess the growth of child care industry median fees. Assuming an annual inflation rate of 3%, a hike in child care prices beyond this level can potentially reduce child care affordability. Ensuring a reasonable growth of average child care fees in each town is a critical part of pro-family policies.

Findings: The KPI target is set to be 3% above FY16’s median fees. In this respect, performance for this KPI is expected to be very well within the FY17 target. This could be due to the growth of partnership programmes, as discussed in the following question.

4. How will the growth of partnership programmes such as the Anchor Operator (AOP) and Partner Operator (POP) schemes help anchor the growth of industry median fees?

Measurable KPI: Proportion of child care centre capacity contributed by centres under the AOP and POP schemes as a ratio to the proportion of Singaporeans living in HDB.

This KPI is significant as one of the main goals of the AOP and POP schemes is to help anchor the growth of industry median fees. These operators, which are government-appointed and receive government grants, are child care centre service providers which have to cap fees, at $720 and $800 a month respectively for full-day childcare, among other criteria. The growth of operators under these schemes will help anchor the increase in childcare industry median fees. The KPI is measured as a ratio to the proportion of Singaporeans living in HDB in order to factor in regional characteristics (for e.g. Bukit Timah has a higher percentage of private home owners, hence the preference may be for private childcare services instead of childcare operators under the AOP/POP schemes.)

Findings: Comparing the change in median fees and the change in AOP & POP Ratio Over Time, we see an interesting but not unexpected correlation. As the ratio dipped in 2016 Q4, we may observe a corresponding increase in median fees. As the ratio increased gradually over the next few quarters, we see a corresponding trend of decrease in median fees. This suggests that the growth of AOP and POP schemes does have impact on median fees that can be explored further.

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However, an anomaly is observed at Bukit Merah:

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Quality: Partnership Programmes

5. How can ECDA achieve a balance between anchoring the growth of industry median fees and not compromising the quality of childcare services?

Measurable KPI: Proportion of child care centre capacity contributed by centres under the AOP and POP schemes as a ratio to the proportion of Singaporeans living in HDB.

The same AOP/POP scheme ratio KPI can be used as an indicator of the quality of overall delivery of childcare services in Singapore. Both AOP and POP schemes, besides having stringent fee caps, also ensures good quality developmental programmes by subsidizing the professional development of centre leaders, teachers and caregivers. The greater number of operators achieving eligibility for these schemes will not only help anchor the growth of fees, but also ensure good quality childcare services.

Findings: There is an overall gradual growth in AOP/POP scheme ratio. Most of the towns have relatively high ratios, with the exception of Bukit Merah, Clementi and Geylang. The low ratio shows that these are the estates which require specific attention. More can be done to introduce AOP/POP scheme child care centres to these towns.

While most estates experience a rise in AOP/POP ratio in the past year, Tampines registered a falling ratio instead. This may indicate a sudden influx of non-AOP/POP operators. There is no guarantee that these operators will meet the necessary quality standards. That being said, the AOP/POP ratio is still within the acceptable range. Hence, ECDA’s attention can be diverted to other areas of need.

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Summary of KPIs

Category KPI FY17 Target Derivation
Accessibility and Sufficiency Overall Enrolment Rate Green Zone: 75 +/- 2.5%
Risk Zone: 75 +/- 5%
Red Zone: < 70% or > 80%An enrolment rate of around 75% is assumed to be most optimal as most of the child care center resources are utilized at this rate, but there remains reasonable bandwidth for unanticipated surge in needs.
Number of Towns Outside Zone Green Zone: < 6
Risk Zone: 6 (No improvement)
Red Zone: > 6Based on 2016 Q4 KPI snapshot value of 6.
Affordability Median Monthly Full-Day CC Fees Green Zone: < $917 (< 3% increment)
Risk Zone: $917 – $935 ( < 5% increment)
Red Zone: > $935 (> 5% increment)Inflation rate in Singapore averaged 2.64% in the past decades. Hence, an increment of approximately less than 3% will be ideal.
Affordability and Quality Proportion of AOP/POP CCCs (By Capacity) Green Zone: > 0.62
Risk Zone: 0.6 – 0.62
Red Zone: < 0.6

Dashboard Design and Assumptions

31.pngLink to Dashboard

As the dashboard is designed for the planning director of ECDA in mind, here are the important considerations:

  1. The most relevant KPIs are placed at the top left hand corner for readability, along with each KPI’s target.
  2. Blue and orange are used as informative colours
  3. Other charts illuminate the KPI trends by introducing the time component along with a projection of the fiscal year end results.
  4. The map serves as a filter to drill down to the town level. Besides, it also shows the median fees colour-coding each town polygon for greater appreciation of the regional characteristics. The map also displays the location of new child care centres.
  5. Axis breaks have not been used due to large differences in values across towns.

List of Assumptions and Disclaimers

  • Due to data availability, the current quarter is assumed to be 2017Q2.
  • Due to lack of ECDA official enrollment, capacity and centre information for 2015 and 2016, 2016Q3 statistics are simulated.
  • Assuming new child care centres, its license type (AOP/POP/NONE), its capacity as well as the potential number of children born to a particular town are jointly predicted by HDB and ECDA. Mock up enrollment statistics (predicted) are used to represent this piece of information for 2017Q3 and 2017Q4.
  • Median fees for 2017Q3 and 2017Q4 are projected using an inflation rate of 5%.
  • All choice of KPI are stipulated using existing data to reflect a reasonable and realistic simulation.

Data Sources:

  • Enrollment, capacity and centre information

https://www.childcarelink.gov.sg/ccls/uploads/Statistics_on_child_care(STENT).pdf
https://www.ecda.gov.sg/Documents/Statistics_on_child_care(STENT).pdf
https://www.msf.gov.sg/policies/Strong-and-Stable-Families/Nurturing-and-Protecting-the-Young/Child-and-Student-Care-Centres-and-Services/Documents/Statistics_on_child_careSTENT.pdf

  • HDB Housing Information

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/infoweb/about-us/news-and-publications/annual-reports

Annual reports from 2010 to 2016 are scrapped for data

  • Population Data

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/browse-by-theme/geographic-distribution

Utilized Data:

Singapore Resident by Planning Area/Subzone and Type of Dwelling, June 2000-2016
Singapore Resident by Planning Area/Subzone, Age Group and Sex, June 2000-2016

Team Members:

Liao Jiexun Jacob (A0163410W)
Luo Jiayu Joy (A0065569N)
Xu Hao Chang (A0163416J)
Zhu Wei (A0163199U)

Singapore ICT development KPI —

Singapore ICT development KPI

Background:

On 24th November 2014, Singapore smart nation initiatives was officially initiated by Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. As part of the Smart Nation initiative, Singapore government target to improve the Information and Communication Technology(ICT) development and capability of Singapore.

According to IDI, the ICT development of a nation can be determined by different indicators to capture the respective ICT readiness, ICT intensity and ICT capability. Based on the 2016 IDI ranking, Singapore currently are positioned at 20th of IDI ranking and hence there are a lot of efforts need to be done by Singapore government to improve the ranking of Singapore.

Goal & Target Audiences:

The target audience of this dashboard is the top management of GovTech. The dashboard can provide them an overview of the Singapore ICT development benchmark against the top countries in terms of their ICT capability set-up

Besides, the dashboard also can provide at-a-glance views of Key Performance Metrics(KPI) in terms of ICT infrastructure capability, ICT development spending, ICT manpower capability and 4G mobile adoption of Singapore as a measure of effectiveness of Smart Nation initiatives and as a reference for GovTech top management on their nationwide ICT roadmap decision making.

Questions:

  1. What is the current average internet speed of Singapore? How Singapore position against the top developed nation and what is the target average internet speed for Singapore?
  2. What is the current internet bandwidth per user of Singapore? How Singapore position against the top developed nation and what is the target internet bandwidth per user for Singapore?
  3. What is the distribution of the recent Singapore government ICT spending in different ICT focus area as compared to previous year?
  4. What is the 4G mobile adoption trend of Singapore mobile users and what is the impact of switching the users between different technologies (3G to 4G, 2G to 3G)?
  5. What is the Singapore ICT manpower development trend and what is the impact of launching of Smart Nation on the ICT job creation of Singapore?

KPI Metrics:

Singapore ICT development benchmark

  1. Ranking of United Nation ICT Development Index(IDI)
  2. World ranking of average Internet connection speed(Mbps)
  3. Target average Internet connection speed(Mbps)
  4. World ranking of Internet bandwidth per User(Bit/s)
  5. Target Internet bandwidth per User(Bit/s)

ICT readiness

  1. Average Connection Speed of Singapore(Mbps)
  2. Percentage of Individuals using the Internet
  3. Percentage of households with Internet access

ICT intensity

  1. Percentage of mobile broadband subscriptions
  2. Singapore mobile Subscription trend by technology type

ICT capability

  1. Singapore government ICT spending breakdown
  2. Singapore ICT manpower availability trend

Data Collection:

Most of the technology capability data such as average internet speed and percentage of Internet access on Singapore GovTech open data platform are not up to date until recent year. As some of these indexes are changing frequent on quarterly basis the latest ICT infrastructure related data used to build the dashboard has been collected from online resources as listed below:

https://www.akamai.com/us/en/about/our-thinking/state-of-the-internet-report/global-state-of-the-internet-connectivity-reports.jsp

http://www.itu.int/net4/ITU-D/idi/2016/#idi2016countrycard-tab&AFG

http://www.opengovasia.com/articles/7628-singapore-government-reveals-fy17-technology-budget-of-sg24-billion-for-smart-nation-and-digital-government

https://data.gov.sg/dataset/total-2g-mobile-subscriptions?resource_id=5fcb4916-1c0c-4dd8-be5a-6a8bf17c4da5

https://data.gov.sg/dataset/infocomm-manpower-vacancies

Dashboard Design:

Below is the overview of the dashboard.

CA1_Singapore ICT development KPI

The color of the dashboard has been kept under 10 types to avoid visual overwhelming. The position of Singapore for two of the world ranking chart has been highlighted to emphasis to relative position of Singapore against different nation. The 5 important KPI figures has been highlighted for clearer visualization as compared to charts.

Different charts have been used in the dashboard due to different consideration as explained below:

Gauge meter has been used to represent the current internet speed and bandwidth per user of Singapore against the target figures. The metric with below or above the 50 percentiles of target metrics are represented with a red and green meter respectively.

A line chart has been used to better visualize the trend of mobile subscription trend by technology type across the period of time. A 100% stacked bar chart has been used for the visualization of the breakdown of ICT spending and placing side by side with previous year distribution for clear comparison.

Finally, a stacked column chart has been used to show the trend of Singapore ICT manpower availability across the time period as there are two groups of manpower (employed and vacant) which sum up to be the total ICT manpower availability of Singapore.

Insights:

What is the current average internet speed of Singapore? How Singapore position against the top developed nation and what is the target average internet speed for Singapore?Q1

The current average internet speed of Singapore is 20.3 Mbps and positioned at 7th of the world. South Korea has an astonishing average internet speed of 28.6Mbps and hence it has been set as the target internet speed for Singapore to look forward.  Also, out of nation with the top 10 fastest internet speed, 4 is from Asia indicated the fast development of ICT capability of Asian countries in terms of ICT readiness.

What is the current internet bandwidth per user of Singapore? How Singapore position against the top developed nation and what is the target internet bandwidth per user for Singapore?

Q2.PNG

The current internet bandwidth per user of Singapore is 0.74 Mbit/s per user and Singaporean has successfully positioned themselves at the 3rd place of the world in terms of bandwidth per user. However, as indicated in the horizontal bar chart, there is still a huge gap between Singapore and the top 2 nation. Hong Kong and Luxembourg is more than 5 times and 9 times than Singapore respectively in terms of bandwidth per user and hence it is reasonable to set the target bandwidth per user to be the 4.16Mbit/s per user and currently Singapore is at the low percentile of the target and hence more efforts need to be done to increase this metric.

What is the distribution of the recent Singapore government ICT spending in different ICT focus area as compared to previous year?

Q3.PNG

We can observed that Singapore government has put more focus on ICT Security (22%), Digital & Data (22%) and Smart Nation initiatives(9%) as compared to 2016(2%, 4% and 1% respectively) where back then the focus is heavily levied on the ICT infrastructure(66%) and Web & Services(16%). This is in line with the Singapore government vision to further improve the ICT security of Singapore following a few incidents regarding the security breach of public sector ICT infrastructure. Also, it can be concluded that Singapore government have recognized the importance of data analytics & science in high level decision making be it in business or public sector and hence decided to invest more on Digital & Data development of nation. As shown in the 100% stacked bar chart, the distribution of the ICT spending is more evenly distributed across a few important ICT development pillars as compared to 2016 and it is clearly more sustainable for the long term ICT roadmap development of Singapore.

What is the 4G mobile adoption trend of Singapore mobile users and what is the impact of switching the users between different technologies (3G to 4G, 2G to 3G)?

Q4

From the line chart, it can be shown that the 2G users has been steadily flat and start to decrease from 2010 after the introduction of 3G network into Singapore on May 2005. The number of 3G user increase steadily from 2005 to 2013 and along the period many 2G user have switching from 2G to 3G mobile plan. The latest 4G network was introduced on March 2013 and there is a mass switching of 3G to 4G subscription by telco and can be visualized by a sharp drop of 3G users on that month. There is a sharp drop in 2G subscriptions and sharp rise of 3G subscriptions on March 2014 which represent a mass switching of 2G to 3G by telco. Currently most of the mobile users are using 4G technology and this represent an encouraging 4G adoption rate among Singapore citizens.

What is the Singapore ICT manpower development trend and what is the impact of launching of Smart Nation on the ICT job creation of Singapore?

Q5

The number of ICT manpower availability has increased steadily from 2003 to 2015, there more ICT vacancy available in recent years indicate there is a requirement for Singapore government to train more ICT professional to be able to meet the manpower demand by the industry. However, the increment of employed ICT experts is slow down from 2008 to 2014 although there is more ICT vacancy created. This represent a manpower gap among the ICT industry.

Since the launch of Smart Nation initiatives of November 2014, there is a lot of info-communications jobs created as shown in the stacked bar chart of 2015. In is advisable for the top management of GovTech to launch more short professional ICT courses for the unemployed middle age PMET to assist them to switch to this industry as there is a supply.

Team Member:

Huang Fuxing(E0147025)

Low Kang Jiang(E0146478)

Tan Hui Xing(E0146437)

Tey Peng Mok(E0146914)

Zhang Huaipeng(E0147003)

Insights into Singapore Tourism Industry —

Insights into Singapore Tourism Industry

Motivation

Tourism sector has been one of the major industry and contributor to Singapore economy. According to Singapore Tourism Board (STB), 2016 hit a record of 16.4 million international tourists and generated $24.8 billion. The government has allocated $905 million to STB to fuel up the tourism developments by investing it with manpower competency and conference management. 

Over the years from 2013 to 2015, the top 5 countries with the most visitors to Singapore are: Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Australia, India. Among them, only Australia belongs to the top 5 affluent countries (countries with highest GDP per capita: Switzerland, Australia, USA, Netherlands, UK).  

GQM analysis

Goal

To fully maximize revenue from underdeveloped markets through insights from existing tourist behavioral patterns towards retail and local attractions. 

Questions

  1. What is the visiting trend over the recent years for countries of interest? 
  2. What are the types of products to promote to each country? 
  3. What are the types of attractions to promote to each country? 
  4. What is the target market to be improved? 
  5. What might be behind the trend of visitors from these countries? 
  6. What are the top products being bought by visitors?  
  7. What are the top visited attractions? 
  8. How to influence visitors from target market to spend more? 
  9. How to increase visitors to the local attractions? 

Metrics

  1. Top 5 countries with the most visitors. 
  2. Top 5 countries with the highest GDP per capita. 
  3. Trend of visitors from each country over recent years. 
  4. Top 3 retail spending for each country. 
  5. Top 3 paid attractions for each country. 
  6. Top 3 free attractions for each country. 

Dashboard Analytics

Insights into Top Visiting Countries

1.Insights into Top Visiting Countries

Insights into Top Affluent Countries

2.Insights into Top Affluent Countries.jpg

Analysis summary

In 2015, the top visiting countries account for 8 million visitors while the top affluent countries account for only a total of 1 million visitors, an eighth of prior. Hence, there are definitely areas within the local tourism industry that can be optimized and improved.

Background on world economy

3.Background on world economy

Since 2010 until now, World Bank’s data reveals that there are 3 predominant countries with consistently growing GDP per capita and population, USA, India and China. With USA being the fastest in income growth, India being the fastest in population growth and China in between. USA being the most affluent amongst them and China being the most populated.

Trend of visitors

Indonesia and Malaysia travelers in the list of top countries with most visitors was not a surprise due to the proximity, ease of travel and some families ties in Singapore. Most of them are repeating visitors who are already familiar with Singapore offerings. STB managed to lure them back by making them engaged on what are the latest and new happenings in Singapore with the “Your Singapore Live” campaign and providing easy access from package bookings, flight and event information. Although there was a 10% decline in 2015, last year (2016)’s figure for Indonesians had increased 6% [7]. STB is putting more effort to make sure Indonesia remains our number one market.

The total number of Chinese visitors has declined significantly to 1.7 million in 2014 due to the Malaysian Airlines aviation disasters happened in the same year, because a large number of Chinese tourists visit the city as part of a package that includes Malaysia and other countries in Southeast Asia. The number slowly recovered to 2.1 million over 2015, then increased to 2.86 million tourists in 2016, as the travelers finally put the disaster memory behind.

Different from the declination of visitors from other countries, the 2014 and 2015’s figures for Indian visitors had increased. According to Euromonitor, Singapore is expected to register a 59% jump in arrivals from India from 2015 to 2020. The number of arrivals from India increased 15% in the first five months of 2017. This is mostly due to the increasing trend of cruise traveling among Indians [10].

Among the top affluent countries and the countries with top visitors to Singapore, however, the figure for total Australian visitors is decreasing, though slowly, since 2014 till 2016. In 2017, STB and Singapore Airlines are promoting Singapore as “the stopover holiday”, as Singapore Changi airport is usually the Australian tourists’ layover en-route hub to other destinations.

The trend of visitors from other affluent countries: the number of tourists from UK and USA though not among the top, but is still increasing. Meanwhile, the number of tourists from Switzerland and Netherlands slowly dropped from 2014 to 2015, but recovered again in 2016, given the small population of these two rich countries, the increment is significant.

STB has been successful in the marketing campaign on the target audiences. All the top 5 countries with most visitors are in its key target market list. Each of these countries have been uniquely advertised according to how these countries perceived Singapore.

Since 2014, Singapore has remained as the most expensive city in the world [8], hence one of the strategies is to boost up Singapore tourism is to focus on the most affluent countries as they can be the top spending tourists despite smaller in quantities; while still maintain the high flows of tourists from the two largest populations – China and India – as well as our neighbors, Indonesia and Malaysia, who are still at the top as countries with most visitors to Singapore. In order to do so, our team has tried to dig deeper into the habit of tourists from these countries: how these international tourists spent money in Singapore, and what their most visited attractions are. From these figures and graphs, we tried to come up with more insightful results about our goal.

Top retail spending

The top 3 segments being: Fashion, Beauty & Healthcare, Gifts.

Fashion and accessories have been the top items being bought in Singapore. This is not a surprise because a lot of international designers and shops have established in Singapore. They have seen Singapore as a strategic regional hub especially trying to reach out to Asian markets. Same goes for beauty cosmetic, perfume and healthcare category that is second in the list.

4.Top retail spending

For economy of scale and to align the overall strategic focus on the top 3 retail segments. USA is identified as a potential candidate to further boost the tourism industry. Being one of the most affluent and populated countries, it is amongst the lowest in top retail spending, there is potential for synergistically growing the top retail segments that tailor to this group of visitors which could also help bolster the overall USA visitors.

The trend of spending the most in fashion, beauty products and healthcare categories is not limited to visitors from the top 5 countries with most visitors, but also is the spending trend among tourists from the affluent countries. As Singapore remains the shopper paradise in Asia and the region’s leading capital in total visitor expenditure, to target visitors from the aforementioned affluent countries, we might pay our focus more on how to make the fashion trends and service quality in Singapore more adaptive to the USA and these European countries’ preferences and cultures.

Although not being mentioned in the chart, but food and beverages are also among the most spending target, especially for tourists from USA. The total spending in this category was up by 24% from 2015 to 2016 [2]. With Singapore’s rich and various cuisines range from East to West, low to high cost, street food to luxury restaurants, we should consider a long campaign about Singapore food diversity to these new markets.

Top paid attractions

5.Top paid attractions

There are two main categories of attractions which are entertainment and nature related. In entertainment, there are Integrated resort, Gardens by the bay, Sentosa and Singapore Flyer. In nature related, there are Night Safari, Singapore Zoo, National Orchid Gardens, Jurong Bird Park and River Safari. The top three paid attractions are in entertainments, maybe due to accessibility for the tourist and the unique experience they provide to the tourist. All nature related attractions are quite far and maybe inaccessible for tourist especially if they have tight schedule. STB could study how they can improve the visiting rates for these natures related paid attractions.

The top paid attraction is on integrated resort, this is consistent with the figure of 2016, as 24% of total receipts are for accommodation, up by 28% compared to 2015 [2]. This could be a result as Singapore usually the layover hub for most of flights from and to Australia, China, and Southeast Asia countries. Besides the variety of luxury hotels and resorts of all the most famous names in the world, one of the type of accommodation that we might invest more in to lure more Western traveler is the traditional and cozy homestay.

Without the bless of rich beautiful nature scenes as of other big countries, however, we have been very successful in promoting Gardens by the bay as most unique sight in Singapore. The sight was rated as the number one in things to do in Singapore on TripAdvisor. Although with a similar natural theme and diverse concepts, but the total visitors to River Safari, Zoo, Orchid Gardens, Jurong Bird Park, Night Safari are much fewer than the figure for Gardens by the bay. Instead of building more gardens like Gardens by the bay, we should invest more on these existing sites with the more unique themes, always-changing scenes, a wider marketing campaigns, and maybe an easier route from the city’s center.

Top free attractions

6.Top free attractions

In line with Fashion being the most popular retail segment in Singapore, Orchard road – Asia’s most famous shopping streets, home to fashion favorites, specialist stores and loads of other lifestyle choices – is the most visited site among the free attractions.

As more and more visitors from China and India, the other most visited free attractions of these tourists are Chinatown and Little India. Indonesian and Malaysian travelers definitely share the same trend, although they prefer Orchard road over these two destinations.

Regarding visitors from the affluent countries, the percentages among these three top attractions are quite balance, with Chinatown’s figure is slightly more preferable.

Conclusion and Further Discussion

2015 has seen the declining of numbers of visitors from most of the countries we have analyzed on. However, these figures have been recovered in 2016, and are continuing to increase this year as STB has successfully organized wide and various campaigns in the five countries with top visitors: Indonesia, China, Australia, India, Malaysia.

Beside the quantity of visitors, we are to expect to hit a new record on total spending by tourists this year. Among the most buying product categories are fashion, beauty products, accommodation.

Align with the spending trend, the most paid attractions in Singapore are, in descending order, integrated resorts, Garden by the bay, Sentosa; the most visited among free sites are Orchard road, Chinatown and Little India.

With the overview on Singapore tourism industry, in this report we focused on strategy to attract more tourists from the top affluent countries: Australia, Switzerland, Netherland, UK and the USA, as with the wealthy condition, they can be the top spending tourists despite smaller in quantities compared to others.

In regard to buying trend, we suggested to focus more on how to make the fashion trends and service quality in Singapore to be more adaptive to the USA and these European countries’ preferences and cultures. We also suggest to consider a campaign about Singapore food diversity to these new markets, for example USA, as Americans tend to spend more on food and beverages in Singapore.

As tourists are spending more on accommodation, we can invest more on our local hotels quality and quantity, but also should not overlook homestay with traditional styles, which can be much more attractive to the Western travelers.

One of the uniqueness of Singapore is our multi-cultures, multi-languages, food diversity. Travelers from Western countries can experience many rich Southeast Asia cultures: Chinese, Indian, Malaysian … in a small city. This can be another winning point for Singapore to get more and more tourists from the affluent countries from far West.

Last but not least, our report although walked through an overview of the picture of Singapore Tourism industry, with the focus on improving revenue on the new market – the affluent countries – we limited ourselves with the analysis on trending of number of visitors, buying products, paid and free attractions; there are still plenty of other aspects to be analyzed to make the strategy completed.

Data Collection and References

[1] http://www.worldbank.org/

[2] http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/tourists-spent-record-248b-in-singapore-in-2016-arrivals-also-hit-record-high-of-164m

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore_Tourism_Board

[4] http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_TTCR_2017_web_0401.pdf

[5] https://www.stb.gov.sg/about-stb/what-we-do/Pages/Marketing-Singapore.aspx

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_of_Switzerland

[7] http://www.asiaone.com/singapore/indonesia-contributes-most-singapore-tourist-arrivals

[8] https://www.cnbc.com/2014/03/04/singapore-now-worlds-most-expensive-city.html

[9] http://www.luxury-insider.com/getaways/singapore-attracts-top-spending-tourist-mastercard-index

[10] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-27/forget-casinos-singapore-s-indian-visitors-are-boarding-ships

 

Submitted by KE5106 Team 5

Bui Kim Dung (A0163434J), Gerry Anggacipta (A0163261M), Tew Boon Teck (A0163462H), Yong Jun Jie (A0163438B), Yong Lester Monar (A0163415L)

 

Healthcare Manpower Shortage in next 10 Years —

Healthcare Manpower Shortage in next 10 Years

With the rapid growth of aging population and chronic diseases, the health system of Singapore is now facing great challenge: a serious shortage of healthcare manpower. The shortage of doctors or nurses will probably lead to decreasing quality of healthcare provided and increasing healthcare costs. The team is to present the dashboard on healthcare workforce to the Director of Manpower Development of Ministry of Health to address the issue of shortage.

Goal

To explore options to meet the rising demand for healthcare in Singapore over the next 10 years

Questions

  1. How has the demand for healthcare changed since 2000?
  2. What will the demand for healthcare be like 10 years from now?
  3. How has the Healthcare workforce meeting this demand?
  4. Will the healthcare workforce be able to continue meeting the demand for healthcare 10 years from now?
  5. How does the proportion of doctors in Singapore compare with other countries?
  6. What strategies can we take to increase the healthcare workforce in Singapore?

Metrics

  • Hospitals and polyclinics admissions over time
  • Projected admissions for the next 10 years
  • Number of doctors and nurses over time
  • Projected number of doctors and nurses in next 10 years
  • Shortage of doctors and nurses in next 10 years
  • Local trained and foreign trained doctors breakdown
  • Local trained and foreign trained nurses breakdown
  • Number of doctors per 1,000 population benchmark
  • Number of nurses per 1,000 population benchmark

Dashboard

Dashboard

Insights

How has the demand for healthcare changed since 2000? What will the demand for healthcare be like 10 years from now?

Hospital Admission

From the graph, we can see that the number of hospital visits is stable, but the number of polyclinic visits is increasing rapidly. This indicates that the demand for healthcare is growing rapidly and steeply. This also implies that the demand for healthcare is being created by increasing numbers of outpatients for chronic disease and sickness, rather than an increase in surgeries and inpatient treatments. This makes sense, as Singapore is an aging population. In ten years’ time, the number of Hospital visits in 2027 is expected to increase by 120 thousand to approximately 680 thousand per year, but the number of polyclinic visits is expected to increase by 1 million to approximately 6 million polyclinic visits in 2027.

How has the Healthcare workforce changed since 2000? Will the Healthcare workforce be able to continue meet the demand for Healthcare 10 years from now?

Healthcare Workforce

From the graph, we can see that the number of doctors and nurses has been increasing steadily since 2000. Setting up new medicine schools (Duke-NUS and LKC Medicine School of NTU) helps produce more doctors locally while grants and scholarships targeting Singaporeans studying medicine overseas attract more of them to come back to Singapore after graduation. However, the number of doctors and nurses is less than the number required to meet the demand today, and the predicted demand for healthcare is to increasing quickly. FactsThe shortage of healthcare professionals is expected to keep increasing, and if nothing is done, the shortage of doctors is expected to reach 5504 in 10 years’ time while the shortage of nurses is approximately 9100 in year 2027.

How does the proportion of doctors and nurses in Singapore compare with other countries?

Benchmark

The proportion of doctors in Singapore is fourth among the six countries compared. Although the proportion of doctors in Singapore is only slightly higher than the proportion of doctors in Japan and Korea, it is much less than the proportion of doctors in Israel. In terms of nurses, Singapore is also in the middle of the list, higher proportion than Korea and Israel but lower than Japan – an aging developed country and UK and USA.

 What strategies can we take to increase the Healthcare workforce in Singapore?

Breakdown

We investigated the origins of the healthcare professionals in Singapore, and where they were trained. The number of healthcare professionals who are trained locally is fairly stable. This makes sense, as the capacity of the universities for medicine in Singapore is a limiting factor. One possibility is to increase local supply by starting a new medicine school and further increasing intakes of local medicine and nursing schools. The other direction is to attract more overseas trained professional.

Data Sources

MOH Statistics
https://www.moh.gov.sg/content/moh_web/home/statistics.html
Data.gov.sg
https://data.gov.sg/group/health
World Bank Healthcare Indicators
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.PHYS.ZS?page=5
Singapore Nursing Board Reports
http://www.healthprofessionals.gov.sg/content/hprof/snb/en/topnav/publications_forms/publications.html
Singapore Medical Council Reports
http://www.healthprofessionals.gov.sg/content/hprof/smc/en/topnav/publication.html

Team Members

Huang Wei  (A0163367Y)
Lwi Tiong Chai  (A0163298U)
Meng Yang   (A0163427E)
Quan Yu  (A0049495N)
Tan Xinli Steven  (A0052121A)

Infocomm Industry’s Manpower Supply and Demand in Singapore —

Infocomm Industry’s Manpower Supply and Demand in Singapore

The infocomm industry has been a key economic sector in Singapore ever since the 1980s. In recent years, it has grown rapidly, especially after the smart nation initiative was announced in 2014.

As with all industry sectors, there is a need to gauge demand and tailor the supply of trained manpower in order to take advantage of growth. Too little supply of skilled labor and the industry’s growth will be stunted, reducing the benefits to the nation and population. Too much and there’s a risk of structural unemployment.

With this in mind, we present a dashboard using data from Data.gov.sg, consolidating various datasets on the infocomm industry, workforce numbers , and details on university graduates

Goals

This dashboard is for the MOM planning team director, and will give him/her a birds-eye view of the infocomm industry’s manpower supply and demand in Singapore, as well as present information that will facilitate effective decision-making with regards to meeting the manpower needs of the infocomm industry.

Questions

This dashboard will enable the director to answer the followng questions:

  1. Is the infocomm industry growing in Singapore?
  2. What are the main characteristics of Singapore’s infocomm workforce?
  3. What are the main trends that Singapore’s infocomm workforce are facing?
  4. Does Singapore have enough skilled workers for the growing infocomm industry?
  5. What are the most effective ways to tackle this skills and demand shortage, if any?

Metrics

The metrics will encompass the growth of the infocomm industry in Singapore, the supply, demand, and characteristics of Singapore’s infocomm workforce, and the characteristics of fresh graduates in Singapore.

  1. Infocomm industry worker numbers over time
  2. Graduates in IT domain by year
  3. Vacancies by year
  4. Age distribution of Singapore’s infocomm workforce
  5. Gender distribution of Singapore’s infocomm workforce
  6. Residential status distribution of Singapore’s infocomm workforce
  7. Qualification
  8. Graduation disciplines

Dashboard

team9

Insights

From the dashboard, one can see some bright spots with regards to Singapore’s infocomm manpower situation. ​

Firstly, the total vacancy rate has decreased, with vacancies remaining constant while the number of infocomm workers have increased​. This means that infocomm manpower planning is working well, meeting the demands of companies without much vacancies or excess.

Also, the skill level of infocomm professionals has increased, with more graduates and less diploma holders. ​This bodes well for Singapore’s infocomm sector, making it easier for companies to incorporate advanced technologies in AI and machine learning, for example.

​That said, there is much to be improved​ as well. To start with, there is a distinct lack of fresh young infocomm talent in Singapore​. As older professionals retire or move to managerial positions, there will exist a skills gap that will need to be filled. This problem will have to be solved by concentrating efforts in recruitment at the university level​, by marketing the infocomm sector as a hip one full of opportunities.

Next, the number of non-resident infocomm workers has increased relative to that of locals, signifying that local professionals not stepping up to work in the infocomm sector​. Here, relevant agencies can seek to improve awareness of opportunities in the infocomm sector​ among locals, as well as establish training programs to improve the skill base, based on the current Skillsfuture program.

Lastly, women only make up one-third of the total​ infocomm workforce. While this gender gap does not seem large, the proportion has stayed constant through the years, indicating that there may be a hidden systemic reason why women are not as well-represented in the industry. In this case, it may be possible to run campaigns to attract women into the infocomm sector​.

References

Employed ICT Manpower
https://data.gov.sg/dataset/employed-ict-manpower

Infocomm Manpower by Residential Status, Highest Qualification Attained, Gender, Discipline of Study and Age
https://data.gov.sg/dataset/infocomm-manpower

Graduates From University First Degree Courses By Type Of Course
https://data.gov.sg/dataset/graduates-from-university-first-degree-courses-by-type-of-course

Infocomm Manpower Vacancies
https://data.gov.sg/dataset/infocomm-manpower-vacancies

Team Members

LIU Huan​
LIU Rui​
MA Ben​
NG Yee Siang Terence​
SHEN Yaoxin